LOCK OF THE CENTURY: NBA Elimination Games

Big NBA night as four different teams face elimination on the same day since 2003.  While it is obvious that it is a must-win game for the teams down 3-1, a couple of the other teams need to close things out tonight to give themselves the best possible preparation and rest for the 2nd round. Games picked in chronological order.

Orlando Magic +10.5 at Indiana Pacers

I wouldn’t touch this game with a ten-foot pole.  10.5 points is just too big of a spread on which to gamble.  It doesn’t matter that the Orlando Magic team is the biggest collection of quitters in pro sports.  Having said that…gun to my head I like Indiana to cover at home.  The Pacers have blown the doors off of the Magic twice in this series and Orlando doesn’t have the ability to rebound from a tough OT loss at home in Game 4.  The Pick: Indiana Pacers -10.5

Boston Celtics +1.5 at Atlanta Hawks

This is the easiest game on the board.  No idea why the Celtics are underdogs in this one.  Yeah, Atlanta is the home team, but it took every bounce and call to fend off the Celtics in game 1.  Then they couldn’t beat the Celtics without Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo in Game 2.  The Celtics just decimated the Hawks in Game 4 to put a stranglehold on the series.  Game 5 on the road for a team up 3-1 can often be a trap game, but the Celtics know that they need to close out the Hawks now so they can rest their aging stars.  Just as much of a must-win for Boston as it is for the Hawks in many ways. The Pick: Boston Celtics +1.5

Philadelphia 76ers +5 at Chicago Bulls

No Rose and no Noah has the Bulls down 3-1 in the series heading home.  They had chances to win both games in Philly, but faded down the stretch.  I feel like the Bulls will try to make a statement tonight and defend home court, but 5 points seems like a huge spread coming off of 3 straight losses.  This is another game that I wouldn’t touch, but with a gun to my head I am going with Philly.  The injuries are too much for the Bulls to overcome and the Sixers have the closers needed to finish in the 4th.       The Pick: Philadelphia 76ers +5.

Denver Nuggets +5.5 at Los Angeles Lakers

If Andrew Bynum is mentally ready to go(which is apparently a big if) then the Nuggets are dead.  They have battled hard in this series and have a bright future, but much like the Celtics, the Lakers will be pushing hard to close this out so they can have a little vacation before their series with the Thunder.  Only one of the three Lakers’ wins has been by more than 5.5 points, but I think they surpass the spread with free throws down the stretch.  The Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -5.5

So it was written, so let it be done.  60% of the time I am right every time.

 

 

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LOCKS OF THE CENTURY: College Football Week 7

I have been pretty much killing it in my picks lately.  Just fleecing the sports books left and right.  Winners on the reg.  Parlay the following picks if you want to be a thousandaire by sunday morning

Wisconsin (-7) at Michigan State

Wisconsin is a well oiled machine at this point and yet the BCS still disrespected them.  The Badgers have plenty of motivation to beat the absolute shit out of an overrated Michigan State team.  The Badgers will roll in this one.

Kansas State (-10.5) at Kansas

Inter-state rivalry game here so the spread is probably a lot smaller than it should be.  Kansas sucks.  I don’t think they could win the MAC conference this year.  K-State just keeps winning.  Undefeated, disrespected, and flying under the radar.

Wake Forest (-3) at Duke

 

Ok, full disclosure…I don’t know shit about Wake Forest…except that they will beat Duke by more than 3.

Auburn (+21) at LSU

So you’re probably thinking…”Man, what is this guy thinking?!?! He must be crazy“…yeah, crazy like a fox.  I think LSU’s offense is terrible, and Auburn is getting better every day.  I liked this game before LSU suspended a handful of starters for being on drugs.  I don’t think they win, but Auburn covers the 21.

Oklahoma State (-7) at Missouri

I know OKST is on the road, but that doesn’t mean they can’t hang 40+ on Mizzou.  No way the Tigers keep this within a touchdown

 

That looks like an easy five for five.  60% of the time I am right every time.  Straight cash homie.

 

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LOCK OF THE Century: Wisconsin(-7.5) at Michigan State

If there was ever a Lock of the Century that I would bet my house on it would be this game.  I know Michigan State just cheap shotted their way to a win at home against Michigan, but there is no way in hell they are keeping this game within single digits.  All Wisconsin has done this season is kick people’s teeth in.  Then the BCS standings come out and they are ranked 6th! Not first…but 6th.  That’s a god damn atrocity.  Wisconsin is probably just as pissed off as I am about that slap in the face.  Wisconsin is for sure hanging 40 points on the Spartans and Michigan State’s offense sucks.  I think this game will be a blow out.  Wisconsin 47 MSU 17

 

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Lock of The Century: NCAA Football Week 3

Well…last week’s “Locks of The Century” didn’t go so well.  Betting  against SEC home dogs is proving to be a terrible idea.  I feel like going 0-2 on those should be enough reason for me to stay away from the LSU @ Mississippi State game…but it just isn’t.  Law of averages says that home dogs can’t cover forever.

LSU -3.5 @ Mississippi State

Alright, couldn’t stay away and I am definitely going with LSU and giving Miss State the 3.5 points.  LSU looked so dominant in their first game against Oregon and Mississippi State really disappointed against a young Auburn team.  LSU is too dominant up front and MSU QB, Chris Relf, can’t throw for shit.  The spread option attack will get destroyed by LSU and they should run away in this thing early.  Great game to kickoff Week 3.  The Pick: LSU

 

PS: Bonus pick…take the under.  Jarret Lee sucks and MSU is too one dimensional to put up a lot of points against LSU.

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Hump Day Heisman Power Rankings

Second installment of the weekly Heisman rankings as we see it here at Windy Citizen Sports.  Rankings are full of bias and prejudice.

 

1. Denard Robinson QB Michigan

After getting my heart ripped out as a Notre Dame fan for the second year in a row I have come to realize that there two undeniable truths about Denard Robinson. 1) He sucks.  Robinson is a terrible quarterback. He routinely misses wide open receivers.  He can’t sling it at all and he no future at the position.  2) Robinson is incredible.  Despite the fact that he is a terrible quarterback, Michigan is truly never out of a game when he is under center.  The guy is a magician back there.  Fuck you Denard. Current Vegas Odds to Win Heisman: 7-2

2. Andrew Luck QB Stanford

It’s still Luck’s award to lose.  The Heisman is almost always a quarterback award and if Luck can lead Stanford to double-digit wins and another BCS game then the award should be his.  Still the front-runner as Robinson’s chances to win will fade as Michigan racks up Big Ten losses. Current Odds: 7-2

 

3. Kellen Moore QB Boise State

 

Similar to Luck, Kellen Moore could win the Heisman as a lifetime achievement award of sorts.  Moore has put up PlayStation style numbers for his entire career and will more than likely finish his career as the FBS all-time wins leader.  Moore has to lead the Broncos to an undefeated season to give himself a real chance at winning the Heisman.  Moore already has a signature win under his belt as the Broncos won big against Georgia in Atlanta. Current Odds: 10-1

 

4. Robert Griffin III QB Baylor

RGIII didn’t play week two as the Baylor Bears had a bye week, but he should explode back into the College Football world’s field of vision again this week.  Griffin III is a long shot to win the award because his team simply isn’t good enough, but that doesn’t mean that RGIII can’t be a finalist. The Heisman finalists often include a player who is deemed to be the most talented or most exciting player in the country.  People forget that Randy Moss was a Heisman finalist the year Charles Woodson won it.  Robert Griffin could certainly be that guy this year.  Current Odds: 22-1

5. Montee Ball RB Wisconsin

Montee Ball continues to put up stupid numbers while splitting time with the other elite Wisconsin running back, James White.  Ball went for 118 yards and two TDs while averaging 6.6 yards per carry against a solid Oregon State team.  Wisconsin better not sleep on NIU at Soldier Field this weekend, because that’s a solid football team who knows the Badgers inside and out.  If Ball continues to put up big numbers and Wisconsin continues to steamroll everyone they face, Ball will be a Heisman finalist. Current Odds: 25-1

 

 

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NFL Kickoff Lock Of The Century: Saints at Packers

Opening week games are a complete crap shoot and this year is worse because the lockout has everyone behind schedule.  I have no idea who is winning this game tonight.  What I do know is that this over/under line of 48.5 is a joke.  These are two of the best offenses in football and they might get to 50 points by halftime.  It almost seems like one of those lines that is too good to be true. Like it might just be a venus fly trap of bets and Vegas/Costa Rica are just trying to Jedi mind-trick the shit out of me.  I can’t stay away from this one though.  Betting with my balls on this one.

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Lock of the Century: Pumping My Own Tires

Before the Stanley Cup Finals Started I gave the Citizens four Locks of the Century.  In those bets, I went 3-1.  Let’s recap:

More Total Points

Burrows -150

Bergeron +120

Before the series I said: “Burrows sucks.  I don’t know how else to put it.  The guy rides on the skirts of the Sedin Sisters and get points almost by default.  Chara will be smashing them in the face all series long and I don’t see that line being a big factor.  Kesler will be skating against the Krejci line most likely which means Bergeron will have plenty of space to score.  Bergeron is without a doubt getting more points than Burrows.”

I am not even all that proud of this one to be honest.  Burrows sucks and is completely gutless, and now everyone knows it.  He had 3 points in the series, all of which game in game 2…a game for which he should have been suspended.  So in my mind he really had 0 points. Complete non-factor.  Bergeron, meanwhile was one of the Bruins better players and leaders in the series.  He is a terrific hockey player.  He has great character, plays two-way hockey and does all the little things right.  By my count he finished with 5 points, and his performance in Game 7 will go down in Boston folklore.  I think Bergeron will be thought of much like Dave Roberts, David Ortiz, Teddy Brushci, Ty Law, etc.  Maybe not the best player on the team, but a guy who had spectacular moments that will be remembered forever. Its a little ironic that perhaps the 3rd goal of Game 7 which completely locked up the Cup appeared to go off the hand that Burrows bit.  Karma is a bitch. Play with some class next time, asshole.

More Total Points

Erhoff -150

Chara +120

Before the series I said: “I am really confused by this one as well.  Chara will most likely be parked in front of the net on the Bruins powerplay which will give him more opportunities to score than normal.  He is also good in the transition game and should pick up a few assists when he isn’t murdering the Sedins.”

Again, picking an underdog that never should have been an underdog is nothing to write home about…but its nothing to sneeze at either.  Erhoff finished the series with a grand total of…drum roll please…1 pt.  Erhoff’s performance was…err–off.  1 pt in the series and a +/- rating of minus 7 for the series.  Way to step up in the Stanley Cup Finals, real solid performance. Meanwhile, when Chara wasn’t smashing Thelma and Louise’s faces in, he was contributing on offense as well.  He didn’t spend as much time in front of the net like I thought he would, but he still managed to chip in 4 points and was a +5 for the series.  Great performance by an elite defenseman and a strong leader.

More Total Points

Ryder +105

Bergeron -135

Before the series I said: “Ryder is good for a one big game a series, but he doesn’t get the minutes required for him to out score Bergeron for an entire series.  It also wouldn’t surprise me if Seguin takes a few shifts from Ryder as well.  Take Bergeron.”

Well if I was going to miss on one bet, I am glad it was the one involving two Bruins players.  Full disclosure, I have never been a big Michael Ryder fan, but I have to give credit where credit is due.  Ryder played a terrific series and finished with 6 points to Bergeron’s 5 points.  Ryder used his size and great shot to be a very effective player for the Bruins.  They probably couldn’t have won the Cup without him.  Props to Ryder.

Exact Series Pick

Bruins in 7

Before the series I said: “My heart says Bruins, my head says Canucks, and my balls say Bruins.  Usually when my balls and heart agree it’s a recipe for disaster…but I don’t care.  Bruins in 7. Suck it Canada.”

I am quite proud of this one.  The Bruins were big underdogs in the series.  Vancouver had home ice advantage, had just come off an easy series against a soft San Jose team, had the best record, Vezina finalist in net, Hart Trophy Finalist, Selke Trophy finalist blah blah blah…I didn’t care.  All of those awards are for the regular season, and they didn’t have a Conn Smythe Trophy candidate on the roster. Something deep down inside told me that the Bruins had enough sand to win this series and I have never been happier with a winning pick in my life.  As Barry Melrose said last night on SportsCenter, it was will over skill.  The Bruins simply had too much heart, pride, grit, and character to lose to this gutless Canucks team.  This was a classic series and good won out over evil.

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Lock of the Century: NHL Stanley Cup Finals Game 6

Vancouver Canucks +130 @ Boston Bruins -130

I have so much confidence in the Boston Bruins tonight.  The NBA proved that there are sports gods, and at the end of the day they will never let gutless teams like the Vancouver Canucks and Miami Heat win championships.  They just aren’t worthy.  The Bruins have too much pride to let Vancouver skate the Cup on their ice. 

Everyday the Canucks give people another reason to hate them.  After game 5, Roberto Luongo basically said that Tim Thomas sucks and that he would have saved that shot easily.  I guess it was just the other 12 shots in games 3 and 4 that gave Roberto Luongo trouble.  Then when the media pressured Luongo about those comments he cried because Tim Thomas hasn’t been telling the world how great Roberto Luongo has been.  Luongo is just a greasy, count chocula look-a-like, cry baby.  Tim Thomas is Wyatt Earp, Dominick Hasek, and Jack Bauer rolled into one.  Then Aaron Rome says that even if he had a time machine, he’d still trying to give Nathan Horton brain damage with a late blind side hit to the head.  There is nothing to like about this team. 

For whatever reason the Bruins were unable to bring the same level of intensity in Game 5 that they brought in games 3 and 4.  Now, with their backs against the wall and skating on home ice the Bruins will use their forecheck and hitting game to punish the Canucks and control the game.  I love the Bruins as the favorite, and if they score first I would put a paycheck on them.  The Canucks are front-runners and will quit in Game 6 if they get down early. 

Lock of the Century: NBA Finals Game 5 Edition

Miami Heat +1 @ Dallas Mavericks -1

I’ll be the first to admit that my NBA Finals Locks of the Century haven’t been the greatest. Costa Rica is kicking my ass in this battle.  Taking Miami in every game has burned me.  Miami is really underachieving, Lebron in particular.  All of these losses are making me feel like the Gambling Gods are trying to punish me by picking and therefore, rooting(kind of) for the Heat.  Well jokes on you Gambling Gods. I’d gladly lose money everyday if it meant that the Heat would be denied a Championship.  So, having said that…give me the Heat.  Lebron is not going to be held to 8 points again.  He has been out-scored by the Boston Bruins 12-8 in the last three days.  No way that trend continues.  Even with Lebron struggling, the Heat have still been in every game.  I think Lebron takes over today and has a huge game.  Proving that he is more fueled by what other people say about him than by winning championships.  He really needs extra motivation?  Jordan would have dominated the Mavs in an empty gym in Siberia because all he cared about was winning.  Lebron takes games off in the middle of the NBA Finals.  Thats the only argument I need.

Over/Under Total Points 184

Every game has been in the 80s and I don’t anticipate that changing now.  The games have been slow, not a ton of possessions and both teams have been bringing in on the defensive end of the court.  88-84 Heat win tonight.  Taking the Heat on the moneyline at -105, Heat against the spread, and the under…which of course means the Mavs probably win a shootout, and I wouldn’t mind a bit.

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Lock of the Century: NBA Finals Game 4

Miami Heat +3 @ Dallas Mavericks -3

My heart says Dallas, but my head says Miami.  Lebron James had 17 points in Game 3 and Miami still won.  All of these Heat playoff series are playing out the exact same way.  Hard fought throughout the first 40 minutes, then Miami’s talent and team athleticism just takes over in crunch time.  Miami learned their lesson in Game 2 that they can’t take their foot off the gas.  Look for Lebron to bounce back tonight and lead the Heat to a victory.  I am also all about omens. I am in Chicago and it is going to be 98 degrees here today.  Ignore signs like this at your own peril.  I like Miami in against the spread, against the moneyline and I also like the over in total 3pt field goals made. The war against the Costa Rican economy continues. I want the same citizenship medal that Obama gave Bill Russell when this thing is all said and done.