Miami Heat +1 @ Dallas Mavericks -1
I’ll be the first to admit that my NBA Finals Locks of the Century haven’t been the greatest. Costa Rica is kicking my ass in this battle. Taking Miami in every game has burned me. Miami is really underachieving, Lebron in particular. All of these losses are making me feel like the Gambling Gods are trying to punish me by picking and therefore, rooting(kind of) for the Heat. Well jokes on you Gambling Gods. I’d gladly lose money everyday if it meant that the Heat would be denied a Championship. So, having said that…give me the Heat. Lebron is not going to be held to 8 points again. He has been out-scored by the Boston Bruins 12-8 in the last three days. No way that trend continues. Even with Lebron struggling, the Heat have still been in every game. I think Lebron takes over today and has a huge game. Proving that he is more fueled by what other people say about him than by winning championships. He really needs extra motivation? Jordan would have dominated the Mavs in an empty gym in Siberia because all he cared about was winning. Lebron takes games off in the middle of the NBA Finals. Thats the only argument I need.
Over/Under Total Points 184
Every game has been in the 80s and I don’t anticipate that changing now. The games have been slow, not a ton of possessions and both teams have been bringing in on the defensive end of the court. 88-84 Heat win tonight. Taking the Heat on the moneyline at -105, Heat against the spread, and the under…which of course means the Mavs probably win a shootout, and I wouldn’t mind a bit.
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Dallas Mavericks +4.5 @ Miami Heat -4.5
Dallas Mavericks +170 @ Miami Heat -200
This game and this series is another example of my gift being my curse. I hate Miami. I want them to lose. However, there is no way Dallas can win this series. They don’t play good enough defense to stop Miami’s Big 3. I think Dwayne Wade in particular will have a great series. I am sure Dallas will try and run several different players at him, but he presents huge match up problems for all of Dallas’ guards. Give me Miami -4.5. The money line isn’t all that attractive at -200, but a win is a win is a win.
For the first time in the history of Locks of the Century I am bringing out prop bet picks. NBA season is almost over, but my quest to take down Costa Rica has only just begun. There are two prop bets that are low hanging fruit.
Total 3pointers made in the game is at 13.5. Dallas loves to jack up threes and they have several players that shoot a high percentage. Miami will also be able to use their small lineup a lot in this series which means more minutes and touches for James Jones who is an ace from the outside. I am taking the over. I’d like this bet at 15.
The other prop bet is a total assists+rebounds for Lebron James and the line is 14. Umm…yes please! Lebron James is on another planet right now. Scottie Pippen thinks he is better than Michael Jordan. Lebron will be counted on to get more rebounds in this series because Miami will most likely use their small lineup often in this series. He is also the best passing forward in the league today, and probably the second best ever behind Larry Bird. Lebron James could approach this line of 14 by halftime.
So there you have it, Citizens. Four bets…four winners. Dallas may not get swept, but Costa Rica sure will. The entire country will be mine in no time. Hey…how about one more just to prove a point…take the under on total points.
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Miami winning it all -215
This is basically stealing, but all is fair in love and war…and I am at war with book makers of Costa Rica.
Miami is without a doubt winning the championship. Odds are that they would have a rematch with Dallas. Dallas is a fun team to watch, but they do not matchup favorably with the Miami Heat. Miami loves to play small and Dallas will allow them to do just that.
Going small gives Miami a huge edge even though that has traditionally been Dallas’s strength. I think Lebron will end up locking down Dirk. Lebron is so strong and athletic that he will be able to push Dirk off of his spots. His leaping ability and explosiveness will allow him to contest all of Dirk’s jumpers.
Dwayne Wade will explode in this series. Miami simply doesn’t have a guy who can match up with him. Jason Terry is a liability, Kidd isn’t the on-ball defender he was a decade ago when he played in the NBA Finals for the Nets, and DeShawn Stevenson just flat-out sucks. Who wears number 92? That’s just annoying.
Heat win this series in 5, no more than 6 games. Dirk may just steal one game, but over the course of the series his legs will wear out as Lebron will force him to work for every shot. It’s not a very attractive line at -225, but a win is a win is a win.