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LOCKS OF THE CENTURY: NCAA Win Totals

July 27, 2011 Leave a comment

NCAA Football win totals are probably my favorite bets of the year…probably because they are the easiest.  Hilton Sports Book in Vegas released their lines this past weekend and they are basically putting an ATM on my front lawn with these.  Easy money.  I also feel a lot smarter when I nail preseason picks.  Six picks to chalk up here.  Too bad you can’t parlay win totals.

 

Boise State – Win Total Line: 10.5 over(-135) Under(+115)

Normally I would stay away from a win total line higher than 10 for any team, but I love this line.  Kellen Moore is back for a senior season and should be a Heisman Finalist.  The Broncos have only three tough games on the schedule; @Georgia(Georgia Dome), Nevada, and TCU.  Nevada and TCU both have to replace long time starters at quarterback and both of those games will be played on the blue turf.  Playing Georgia in Atlanta will be a tough test, but Boise State historically plays very well against the big boys when given ample time to prepare.  No way the Broncos lose 2 games on their slate provided Moore stays healthy. TAKING OVER(-135)

Virginia Tech– Win Total Line: 10 over(-160) under(+140)

Full disclosure, I was ready to take the under when I saw this line. 10 wins at -160 is not a very attractive line, but then I decided I would actually look at the Hokies’ schedule.  What a cake walk.  They don’t play Florida State and they get Miami, Clemson, Boston College, and UNC at home.  They should be favored in all of those games.  Even though I am not really buying to the hype surrounding VaTech’s new QB, its hard to find two losses on that schedule.  Its either a win or a push at 10 wins.  TAKING OVER(-160)

West Virginia– Win Total Line: 9.5 over(+150) under(-170)

If you had read this blog in the past couple of weeks it’s no secret that I LOVE West Virginia this year.  Geno Smith and Dana Holgorsen are a match made in offense heaven.  They are going to light up the BigEast this season.  The test will come in their non-conference schedule.  West Virginia takes on SEC power LSU and ACC up-and-comer Maryland.  WVU probably splits those games and maybe drops a conference game somewhere along the line.  I just don’t see this team losing three games.  WVU is BCS bound.  TAKING OVER(+150)

USC– Win Total Line: 7.5 over(-130) under(+110)

Look, I hate USC as much as the next guy, but there is absolutely NO chance that they lose 5 games this year.  They are in year two of the Lane Kiffin era, have the best quarterback in the conference(maybe the country) not named Andrew Luck, and they don’t have nearly as many distractions this season.  I only see three losses on the schedule at this point.  @Notre Dame, @Oregon, and home against Stanford.  There other “tough” conference tests come at home.  I am simply not buying Utah and Arizona as real contenders in the Pac12.  USC is still probably the most talented team in the conference and will rebound this year with a 9-3 record. TAKING OVER(-130)

Notre Dame– Win Total Line: 8.5 over(-130) under(+140)

There simply aren’t 4 losses on ND’s schedule this year.  The Irish are returning almost all starters on both sides of the ball and will be much more comfortable in year 2 of Brian Kelly’s system.  Michigan State historically gives the Irish fits, but the Spartans are coming to South Bend this year and ND will be looking to avenge last season’s heartbreaking OT loss.  Notre Dame could very well be unbeaten heading into the season finale @Stanford.  So if the Irish are 11-0…that means they aren’t losing 4 games.  TAKING OVER(-160)

Miami(FLA)– Win Total Line: 8 over(-120) under(even)

Kudos to the Hurricanes for scheduling probably the toughest non-conference slate in the country…however that means that they will be fighting for bowl eligibility in their first season under coach Al Golden.  Miami opens at Maryland on Sept 5th, before heading home to face Ohio State and Kansas State in consecutive weeks.  The ‘Canes also play VaTech, Florida State, UNC, and USF on the road.  A quarterback controversy, a new system and the schedule from hell will have Miami well under 8 wins.  TAKING UNDER(even)

 

 

 

Lock of the Century: MLB Edition

June 9, 2011 4 comments

Betting on baseball is so easy its unbelievable.  No wonder Pete Rose couldn’t resist.  Its like somebody giving you cash for being able to read or something.  I killed it yesterday.  Cubs had lost 8 in a row.  Their losing streak had no end in sight, except I saw it from a mile away.  Cubs were big winners.  For kicks I gave the citizens the Brewers win and the over…win and win.  The day before I gave you the road dog Red Sox to win 2 of 3 games on the series bet…and that cashed in too.  Just picking winners like its my job, good thing it is. I picked the Miami Heat in my NBA Lock of the Century, and I am pretty much hoping I lose that one so I am making up for it with baseball.

Seattle Mariners +168 @ Detroit Tigers -188

This one isn’t exactly brain surgery.  Terrible Mariners team on the road taking on one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. Verlander will probably have double-digit strike outs and breeze to a win.  The line isn’t the most attractive, but a win is a win is a win.  Also, I have never heard of this Fister guy pitching for Seattle.  One of my gambling rules is that if I have never heard of you, it means that you suck. Tigers roll.

Oakland A’s even @ Chicago White Sox -110

Honestly, the only game I really love on the board is the Tigers game, but you can’t win if you don’t play and I am on fire right now.  Playing with house money.  Give me the White Sox at home with Buerhle pitching.  Seems like a solid pick.  Decent moneyline for the favorite at home.  Good enough for me.  I am just going to keep racking up wins.

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Jinxes, Curses, and Karma when Betting: Locks of the Century

June 3, 2011 Leave a comment

I have nobody to blame but myself for Miami’s epic collapse last night.  I got cocky and via twitter basically proclaimed that nobody could stop me from winning.  I was staring a 5-1 maybe 6-0 record in the face mid-way through the 4th quarter.  The first rule of gambling is don’t taunt the gambling gods.  I had already nailed 3 of my 6 bets, and was looking like a prophet again.  Within in 5 minutes Dallas shooting, Lebron fade-away threes, and Eric Spoelstra coaching stole 3 wins from me.  That’s what I get.  Next time I’ll just gloat when the fat lady has sung.  Sorry America. 

Still went 3-3 for the game, not too shabby.  Live to fight another day.

Lock of the Century: NBA Finals Game 2 Prop Bets

June 2, 2011 Leave a comment

Well well well…looks like all I had to do was call the sportsbooks out and they publish their prop bets for Game 2 of the NBA Finals.  Big mistake, huge.  I am going to just tear into them again.  I already have the Miami Heat on the moneyline and I also have them covering the 4.5 point spread. Prop bets are low hanging fruit.  There are two ways to stop Costa Rica sportsbooks; the Eric Holder way or my way.  My way gets you paid.

3-point prop bet trifecta

I love all three of these 3 point shots made lines.  This is just stealing.  Both teams will employ their small lineup, both teams love the three, and they crushed this line in Game 1.  The line for Miami’s made 3pointers is laughable.  Lebron James was 4 of 5 by himself in the last game.  Dallas is playing zone the majority of the time to try to take away dribble penetration.  Miami will be shooting more three pointers than normal.  Eight isn’t nearly enough for Dallas either.  Give me all three of these.

Dirk Nowitzki Total Assists+Rebounds over/under 10.5

Dallas had better pray Dirk doesn’t come under this line.  If he does he is probably sick or dead or severely injured.  Dirk is becoming a better passer and Dallas has got to be preaching to each other to get aggressive on the glass after Miami controlled rebounding in Game 1.  Dirk is the leader of the team, and as the power-forward will be counted on to get more rebounds.  I also think that Dirk’s finger injury probably helps with this line. If he is limited offensively he will look to get others involved and contribute in other ways.

So that’s 6 total sports gambling Locks of the Century for Game 2 of the NBA Finals.  Miami on the moneyline, Miami on the spread, total threes over 14, Mavs 3s over 8, Heat 3s over 5.5, and Dirk Nowitzki to be over 10.5 combined rebounds+assists.  That’s some easy money.  Enjoy the game…GET THAT PAPER.  STRAIGHT CASH HOMIE

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