I don’t want to pump my own tires, but I totally nailed the LSU vs Mississippi State game last night. Gave you LSU as the road favorite and also took the under. 2 for 2. Feeling pretty pretttyyy good about myself right now. Good enough to give the people 5 more Locks of the Century for college football.
#15 Michigan State +5 @ Notre Dame
Very confusing line here. Notre Dame is on the verge of collapse and leads the country in turnovers. Meanwhile, Michigan State has looked strong in their first two games, albeit against weak opponents. Vegas is practically begging people to take Michigan State with this line. It makes no sense at all…except that it makes perfect. This is one of the oldest tricks in the book. Bookmakers are trying to Jedi mind-trick the public into taking Michigan State with this line. They might have fooled a lesser man, but this isn’t my first rodeo. The Irish can’t continue to turn the ball over like they have. This is the week it all comes together for Notre Dame. The Pick: Notre Dame -5
#8 Oklahoma State +13.5 @ Tulsa
Tulsa is a program on the rise and they can score in bunches, but they won’t be able to keep up with OKST. The Cowboys have arguably the most explosive offense in the country. Even though Tulsa is the home team, there will be plenty of Cowboy fans in this intra-state game. Oklahoma State covers this one. The Pick: Oklahoma State -13.5
Ohio State +2.5 @ Miami(FL)
The Sanction Bowl is missing some of its star players from both teams in what would have been one of the marquee early games of the season. Ohio State looks to be a long way from being a dominant program and could be staring a 4 or 5 loss season square in the face. Joe Bauserman SUCKS. There is no getting around it. Its Miller time in Ohio State, and the sooner they realize it the better. Bauserman gives them virtually no chance to win. The Pick: The U -2.5
Northwestern -4.5 @ Army
Is it me or is Northwestern disrespected by Vegas just about every week? NEWS FLASH: Northwestern is good. Persa strong baby. The Big 10 is a deep conference and Northwestern will win 8 games again this year. One of those 8 games will come here against Army who has struggled against weaker opponents than the Wild Cats. The Pick: Northwestern -4.5
Tennessee +9.5 @ #16 Florida
I love me some Tyler Bray. He is the best quarterback in this game and Tennessee is a program that is getting stronger. I don’t think Tennessee wins this game, but they definitely cover. Florida is a team in transition is ranked #16 on the strength of their name and conference. I like the Vols to cover and I LOVE the over/under line at 50.5. The Pick(s): Tennessee +9.5 and OVER 50.5
That is six picks in total. parlay those if you feel like being a thousandaire by Sunday.
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All season long I will be posting my rankings of Heisman candidates. I am no “expert”, but this is something to read to get you through your Wednesday so enjoy.
1. Kellen Moore QB Boise State– The Heisman Trophy is often a lifetime achievement award, and Kellen Moore has had arguably the best career of any active college football player. Moore is approaching the career wins record currently held by Colt McCoy. In addition to that record, Moore has consistently put up outstanding numbers. Perhaps the biggest piece to the Heisman equation is getting signature wins. Boise State’s convincing win against Georgia in Atlanta is the biggest reason why Kellen Moore tops the initial Heisman Hump Day rankings. Current Vegas Odds: 15-1
2. Robert Griffin III Quarterback Baylor– RGIII has no real shot to win the Heisman because I can’t see Baylor winning more than 8 games. I don’t think anybody has ever won the Heisman playing for an average football team, but Robert Griffin III is off to as good of a start as anybody in 2011. Baylor’s exciting win against the reigning Rose Bowl Champs TCU put RGIII on the Heisman radar and in the minds of Americans. Griffen III is the closest thing to Michael Vick and is must watch TV. If he can somehow get Baylor to 9 or 10 wins he could be a finalist. Current Odds: 20-1
3. Andrew Luck Quarterback Stanford– Andrew Luck is still the Vegas pick to win the Heisman. Luck is the most gifted pocket quarterback in the country and his team should contend for a conference championship. Luck didn’t do anything wrong in week one to drop in the Hump Day Heisman Rankings, but he didn’t have the signature moments that the two QBs above him had. Luck will be at or near the top of Heisman rankings all year barring an injury or Stanford going in the shitter. Current Odds: 9-2
4. Montee Ball Running Back Wisconsin– Montee Ball lost some weight in the summer and it has made all the difference. The guy looked quick, explosive, and powerful against UNLV in the season opener. Wisconsin could be national championship contender and the presence of new QB Russell Wilson should prevent teams from stacking 9 guys in the box. Perhaps Ball’s biggest obstacle will be his teammate James White. White getting touches could prevent Ball from putting up the numbers he needs to be a Heisman finalist. Montee Ball got the majority of the burn against UNLV. If that ratio of touches stays consistent through the year Ball could be the second Badger to win the Heisman. Current Odds: 80-1
5. Michael Floyd Wide Receiver Notre Dame– One of the few positive aspects of Notre Dame’s loss to USF was the play of Michael Floyd. Floyd had a career high 12 catches and also brought in two TDs. The Irish were not overhyped, they just had a game where everything went wrong. Floyd will be the focus of Tommy Rees going forward for the Irish, and the Senior could put up record numbers. If Notre Dame rebounds, and Floyd keeps racking up numbers like he did on Saturday, then he could very well be a Heisman finalist. Current Odds: 40-1
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NCAA Football win totals are probably my favorite bets of the year…probably because they are the easiest. Hilton Sports Book in Vegas released their lines this past weekend and they are basically putting an ATM on my front lawn with these. Easy money. I also feel a lot smarter when I nail preseason picks. Six picks to chalk up here. Too bad you can’t parlay win totals.
Boise State – Win Total Line: 10.5 over(-135) Under(+115)
Normally I would stay away from a win total line higher than 10 for any team, but I love this line. Kellen Moore is back for a senior season and should be a Heisman Finalist. The Broncos have only three tough games on the schedule; @Georgia(Georgia Dome), Nevada, and TCU. Nevada and TCU both have to replace long time starters at quarterback and both of those games will be played on the blue turf. Playing Georgia in Atlanta will be a tough test, but Boise State historically plays very well against the big boys when given ample time to prepare. No way the Broncos lose 2 games on their slate provided Moore stays healthy. TAKING OVER(-135)
Virginia Tech– Win Total Line: 10 over(-160) under(+140)
Full disclosure, I was ready to take the under when I saw this line. 10 wins at -160 is not a very attractive line, but then I decided I would actually look at the Hokies’ schedule. What a cake walk. They don’t play Florida State and they get Miami, Clemson, Boston College, and UNC at home. They should be favored in all of those games. Even though I am not really buying to the hype surrounding VaTech’s new QB, its hard to find two losses on that schedule. Its either a win or a push at 10 wins. TAKING OVER(-160)
West Virginia– Win Total Line: 9.5 over(+150) under(-170)
If you had read this blog in the past couple of weeks it’s no secret that I LOVE West Virginia this year. Geno Smith and Dana Holgorsen are a match made in offense heaven. They are going to light up the BigEast this season. The test will come in their non-conference schedule. West Virginia takes on SEC power LSU and ACC up-and-comer Maryland. WVU probably splits those games and maybe drops a conference game somewhere along the line. I just don’t see this team losing three games. WVU is BCS bound. TAKING OVER(+150)
USC– Win Total Line: 7.5 over(-130) under(+110)
Look, I hate USC as much as the next guy, but there is absolutely NO chance that they lose 5 games this year. They are in year two of the Lane Kiffin era, have the best quarterback in the conference(maybe the country) not named Andrew Luck, and they don’t have nearly as many distractions this season. I only see three losses on the schedule at this point. @Notre Dame, @Oregon, and home against Stanford. There other “tough” conference tests come at home. I am simply not buying Utah and Arizona as real contenders in the Pac12. USC is still probably the most talented team in the conference and will rebound this year with a 9-3 record. TAKING OVER(-130)
Notre Dame– Win Total Line: 8.5 over(-130) under(+140)
There simply aren’t 4 losses on ND’s schedule this year. The Irish are returning almost all starters on both sides of the ball and will be much more comfortable in year 2 of Brian Kelly’s system. Michigan State historically gives the Irish fits, but the Spartans are coming to South Bend this year and ND will be looking to avenge last season’s heartbreaking OT loss. Notre Dame could very well be unbeaten heading into the season finale @Stanford. So if the Irish are 11-0…that means they aren’t losing 4 games. TAKING OVER(-160)
Miami(FLA)– Win Total Line: 8 over(-120) under(even)
Kudos to the Hurricanes for scheduling probably the toughest non-conference slate in the country…however that means that they will be fighting for bowl eligibility in their first season under coach Al Golden. Miami opens at Maryland on Sept 5th, before heading home to face Ohio State and Kansas State in consecutive weeks. The ‘Canes also play VaTech, Florida State, UNC, and USF on the road. A quarterback controversy, a new system and the schedule from hell will have Miami well under 8 wins. TAKING UNDER(even)