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LOCKS OF THE CENTURY: NCAA Win Totals

July 27, 2011 Leave a comment

NCAA Football win totals are probably my favorite bets of the year…probably because they are the easiest.  Hilton Sports Book in Vegas released their lines this past weekend and they are basically putting an ATM on my front lawn with these.  Easy money.  I also feel a lot smarter when I nail preseason picks.  Six picks to chalk up here.  Too bad you can’t parlay win totals.

 

Boise State – Win Total Line: 10.5 over(-135) Under(+115)

Normally I would stay away from a win total line higher than 10 for any team, but I love this line.  Kellen Moore is back for a senior season and should be a Heisman Finalist.  The Broncos have only three tough games on the schedule; @Georgia(Georgia Dome), Nevada, and TCU.  Nevada and TCU both have to replace long time starters at quarterback and both of those games will be played on the blue turf.  Playing Georgia in Atlanta will be a tough test, but Boise State historically plays very well against the big boys when given ample time to prepare.  No way the Broncos lose 2 games on their slate provided Moore stays healthy. TAKING OVER(-135)

Virginia Tech– Win Total Line: 10 over(-160) under(+140)

Full disclosure, I was ready to take the under when I saw this line. 10 wins at -160 is not a very attractive line, but then I decided I would actually look at the Hokies’ schedule.  What a cake walk.  They don’t play Florida State and they get Miami, Clemson, Boston College, and UNC at home.  They should be favored in all of those games.  Even though I am not really buying to the hype surrounding VaTech’s new QB, its hard to find two losses on that schedule.  Its either a win or a push at 10 wins.  TAKING OVER(-160)

West Virginia– Win Total Line: 9.5 over(+150) under(-170)

If you had read this blog in the past couple of weeks it’s no secret that I LOVE West Virginia this year.  Geno Smith and Dana Holgorsen are a match made in offense heaven.  They are going to light up the BigEast this season.  The test will come in their non-conference schedule.  West Virginia takes on SEC power LSU and ACC up-and-comer Maryland.  WVU probably splits those games and maybe drops a conference game somewhere along the line.  I just don’t see this team losing three games.  WVU is BCS bound.  TAKING OVER(+150)

USC– Win Total Line: 7.5 over(-130) under(+110)

Look, I hate USC as much as the next guy, but there is absolutely NO chance that they lose 5 games this year.  They are in year two of the Lane Kiffin era, have the best quarterback in the conference(maybe the country) not named Andrew Luck, and they don’t have nearly as many distractions this season.  I only see three losses on the schedule at this point.  @Notre Dame, @Oregon, and home against Stanford.  There other “tough” conference tests come at home.  I am simply not buying Utah and Arizona as real contenders in the Pac12.  USC is still probably the most talented team in the conference and will rebound this year with a 9-3 record. TAKING OVER(-130)

Notre Dame– Win Total Line: 8.5 over(-130) under(+140)

There simply aren’t 4 losses on ND’s schedule this year.  The Irish are returning almost all starters on both sides of the ball and will be much more comfortable in year 2 of Brian Kelly’s system.  Michigan State historically gives the Irish fits, but the Spartans are coming to South Bend this year and ND will be looking to avenge last season’s heartbreaking OT loss.  Notre Dame could very well be unbeaten heading into the season finale @Stanford.  So if the Irish are 11-0…that means they aren’t losing 4 games.  TAKING OVER(-160)

Miami(FLA)– Win Total Line: 8 over(-120) under(even)

Kudos to the Hurricanes for scheduling probably the toughest non-conference slate in the country…however that means that they will be fighting for bowl eligibility in their first season under coach Al Golden.  Miami opens at Maryland on Sept 5th, before heading home to face Ohio State and Kansas State in consecutive weeks.  The ‘Canes also play VaTech, Florida State, UNC, and USF on the road.  A quarterback controversy, a new system and the schedule from hell will have Miami well under 8 wins.  TAKING UNDER(even)

 

 

 

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