NCAA Football win totals are probably my favorite bets of the year…probably because they are the easiest. Hilton Sports Book in Vegas released their lines this past weekend and they are basically putting an ATM on my front lawn with these. Easy money. I also feel a lot smarter when I nail preseason picks. Six picks to chalk up here. Too bad you can’t parlay win totals.
Boise State – Win Total Line: 10.5 over(-135) Under(+115)
Normally I would stay away from a win total line higher than 10 for any team, but I love this line. Kellen Moore is back for a senior season and should be a Heisman Finalist. The Broncos have only three tough games on the schedule; @Georgia(Georgia Dome), Nevada, and TCU. Nevada and TCU both have to replace long time starters at quarterback and both of those games will be played on the blue turf. Playing Georgia in Atlanta will be a tough test, but Boise State historically plays very well against the big boys when given ample time to prepare. No way the Broncos lose 2 games on their slate provided Moore stays healthy. TAKING OVER(-135)
Virginia Tech– Win Total Line: 10 over(-160) under(+140)
Full disclosure, I was ready to take the under when I saw this line. 10 wins at -160 is not a very attractive line, but then I decided I would actually look at the Hokies’ schedule. What a cake walk. They don’t play Florida State and they get Miami, Clemson, Boston College, and UNC at home. They should be favored in all of those games. Even though I am not really buying to the hype surrounding VaTech’s new QB, its hard to find two losses on that schedule. Its either a win or a push at 10 wins. TAKING OVER(-160)
West Virginia– Win Total Line: 9.5 over(+150) under(-170)
If you had read this blog in the past couple of weeks it’s no secret that I LOVE West Virginia this year. Geno Smith and Dana Holgorsen are a match made in offense heaven. They are going to light up the BigEast this season. The test will come in their non-conference schedule. West Virginia takes on SEC power LSU and ACC up-and-comer Maryland. WVU probably splits those games and maybe drops a conference game somewhere along the line. I just don’t see this team losing three games. WVU is BCS bound. TAKING OVER(+150)
USC– Win Total Line: 7.5 over(-130) under(+110)
Look, I hate USC as much as the next guy, but there is absolutely NO chance that they lose 5 games this year. They are in year two of the Lane Kiffin era, have the best quarterback in the conference(maybe the country) not named Andrew Luck, and they don’t have nearly as many distractions this season. I only see three losses on the schedule at this point. @Notre Dame, @Oregon, and home against Stanford. There other “tough” conference tests come at home. I am simply not buying Utah and Arizona as real contenders in the Pac12. USC is still probably the most talented team in the conference and will rebound this year with a 9-3 record. TAKING OVER(-130)
Notre Dame– Win Total Line: 8.5 over(-130) under(+140)
There simply aren’t 4 losses on ND’s schedule this year. The Irish are returning almost all starters on both sides of the ball and will be much more comfortable in year 2 of Brian Kelly’s system. Michigan State historically gives the Irish fits, but the Spartans are coming to South Bend this year and ND will be looking to avenge last season’s heartbreaking OT loss. Notre Dame could very well be unbeaten heading into the season finale @Stanford. So if the Irish are 11-0…that means they aren’t losing 4 games. TAKING OVER(-160)
Miami(FLA)– Win Total Line: 8 over(-120) under(even)
Kudos to the Hurricanes for scheduling probably the toughest non-conference slate in the country…however that means that they will be fighting for bowl eligibility in their first season under coach Al Golden. Miami opens at Maryland on Sept 5th, before heading home to face Ohio State and Kansas State in consecutive weeks. The ‘Canes also play VaTech, Florida State, UNC, and USF on the road. A quarterback controversy, a new system and the schedule from hell will have Miami well under 8 wins. TAKING UNDER(even)
If there is one thing I know about Horse Racing, its that you can’t win without a great name. The Belmont Stakes is loaded with loser names this year. Its going to be tough to find a great trifecta, but I’ll give it my best shot.
If you know your history, Nero was the Roman Emperor who burned down Rome by mistake. Nero is known as possibly the most evil Roman Cesars, and was also crazy. Well, I am crazy too…like a fox. Not sure if Nehro was named for Nero, but its the only thing I can think of. I’ll take a Roman Emperor over the animal kingdom any day.
Well in the past two Triple Crown races I had picked this horse to be a loser. I thought my logic was solid. How fast can a horse be with shackles on its name? Well, I was way off. Shackleford won the Preakness. Turns out logic was so flawed, but my method is still genius. I put all the emphasis on the shackles and completed ignored the “ford” part. Ford is a car, cars are faster than horses. Ford even makes a mustang. Man, sorry everyone. Can’t believe I didn’t pick up on this one before. Better late than never.
Master of Hounds: 10-1
Based on their names the rest of the field is full of losers, complete dogs. So what better pick to finish 3rd than the Master of Hounds.
Last night was amazing. The Heat are a joke. Lebron has to be the worst “superstar” in the history of the NBA. This shouldn’t surprise anyone. Lebron has sucked all along. He flat out quit on the Cavs last year because the Celtics were too tough on him. Then this performance in the NBA Finals has sealed his legacy in my mind forever. I don’t care if he wins 10 championships, he will always suck. People were so quick to crown him as the greatest of all time. ESPN is a joke. Yeah he hit a few big three pointers against the Celtics and Bulls, but guess what…Robert Horry has hit clutch shots in the playoffs, he isn’t the greatest of all time. Lebron is a quitter and a loser. Last night was the perfect opportunity to assert himself as a superstar and leader with Dwayne Wade missing so many minutes with a bruise, but he failed.
The Heat are so smug and arrogant. That’s why everyone in America hates them. I couldn’t believe when I saw them mocking Dirk for being sick after he kicked their ass when he was sick. Hey Lebron, just because Dirk scored like triple the points you did, doesn’t mean that he wasn’t sick. It means he’s a leader and you’re a loser. Last night proved that if Dwayne Wade isn’t superman, then the Heat can’t win because they don’t have another leader on the team. I hope Dallas finishes off the Heat in Miami. The Heat don’t deserve a championship and neither do their fans.
The Mavs are America’s team and are truly a team. Getting big time contributions from Kidd, Marion, Terry, and led by superstar Dirk Nowitzki. Tyson Chandler is giving the Mavs defense and rebounding. The Bulls used to have a guy named Tyson Chandler back in the day. Top 5 draft pick. That guy was a total bust. Man did he suck. Whatever happened to that guy?
I picked the Heat and the under in my Locks of the Century yesterday. “Taking the Heat on the moneyline at -105, Heat against the spread, and the under…which of course means the Mavs probably win a shootout, and I wouldn’t mind a bit.” Well, wouldn’t you know it, that’s exactly what happened. Haven’t looked at the lines for Game 6, but you can bet I am going back to the Heat well again if it means a Dallas Mavericks win. You’re welcome America.
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Miami Heat +1 @ Dallas Mavericks -1
I’ll be the first to admit that my NBA Finals Locks of the Century haven’t been the greatest. Costa Rica is kicking my ass in this battle. Taking Miami in every game has burned me. Miami is really underachieving, Lebron in particular. All of these losses are making me feel like the Gambling Gods are trying to punish me by picking and therefore, rooting(kind of) for the Heat. Well jokes on you Gambling Gods. I’d gladly lose money everyday if it meant that the Heat would be denied a Championship. So, having said that…give me the Heat. Lebron is not going to be held to 8 points again. He has been out-scored by the Boston Bruins 12-8 in the last three days. No way that trend continues. Even with Lebron struggling, the Heat have still been in every game. I think Lebron takes over today and has a huge game. Proving that he is more fueled by what other people say about him than by winning championships. He really needs extra motivation? Jordan would have dominated the Mavs in an empty gym in Siberia because all he cared about was winning. Lebron takes games off in the middle of the NBA Finals. Thats the only argument I need.
Over/Under Total Points 184
Every game has been in the 80s and I don’t anticipate that changing now. The games have been slow, not a ton of possessions and both teams have been bringing in on the defensive end of the court. 88-84 Heat win tonight. Taking the Heat on the moneyline at -105, Heat against the spread, and the under…which of course means the Mavs probably win a shootout, and I wouldn’t mind a bit.
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Chicago Cubs +127 @ Cincinnati Reds -137
Not a lot of science to this one. Law of averages says that the Cubs have to win eventually, right? I’ll take Dempster pitching with all the good karma the Cubs probably got for drafting a Gretzky yesterday.
New York Mets +145 @ Milwaukee Brewers -160
The Brewers are on fire since Corey Hart returned from a DL stint and the Mets are just awful. Randy Wolfe is good enough to keep the Mets at bay until the Brewer bats wear down and beat down Pelfrey. I also like the over in this game. Brewers could get there by themselves tonight.
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Miami Heat +3 @ Dallas Mavericks -3
My heart says Dallas, but my head says Miami. Lebron James had 17 points in Game 3 and Miami still won. All of these Heat playoff series are playing out the exact same way. Hard fought throughout the first 40 minutes, then Miami’s talent and team athleticism just takes over in crunch time. Miami learned their lesson in Game 2 that they can’t take their foot off the gas. Look for Lebron to bounce back tonight and lead the Heat to a victory. I am also all about omens. I am in Chicago and it is going to be 98 degrees here today. Ignore signs like this at your own peril. I like Miami in against the spread, against the moneyline and I also like the over in total 3pt field goals made. The war against the Costa Rican economy continues. I want the same citizenship medal that Obama gave Bill Russell when this thing is all said and done.
Vancouver Canucks +105 @ Boston Bruins -125
The Bruins are coming home after having their hearts ripped out in consecutive games in Vancouver. The Bruins have played much better than I thought they would and definitely deserved better in Game 2. Alex Burrows getting 2 goals and an assist in a game for which he should have been suspended for biting has got to be a bitter pill to swallow.
The Bruins essentially played the Canucks even in both games and are a good bounce or two away from maybe being up 2-0 heading home. The Boston Bruins have too much pride to bow out in 4 games and they will use their crowd made up of 18,000 guys from “Southie” to push them over the top.
It’s also time to give Seguin some bigger minutes. Skate him with Bergeron’s line every once in a while. He could give the Bruins an added dynamic and it could also keep the aging Mark Recchi more fresh if he takes a few shifts off during the game.
This is a must win game for the Bruins and they have the sand and the skill to get it done at home. The Sedin Sisters will fold like always in the face of a hostile environment. Bruins and the under tonight.