Home > Internet Sensation, Locks of the Century > NFL Win Total Over/Unders are out. Dolla, dolla, bills y’all

NFL Win Total Over/Unders are out. Dolla, dolla, bills y’all

Covers.com released Cantor Gaming’s 2012 win total lines and there is some real easy money out there.  Let’s just get right to it.

The “So easy it’s practically stealing” Division:

New England Patriots: Over 12 wins -120. Under 12 wins -110

Ask yourself this question: Is 19 wins more than 12?  If you answered yes to that question then you should bet on the Pats.  The Pats won 13 games last year with one of the NFL’s worst defenses and virtually no vertical passing game.  Both of those problem areas have been addressed.  While I don’t put a ton of stock into this because the NFL changes so much year to year, I can’t completely ignore that the Patriots have the easiest schedule in the NFL based on the winning percentages of opponents from last season. The Pick: Over -120

Chicago Bears: Over 8.5 wins -135. Under 8.5 wins +105

The Bears finished last season with 8 wins and they reached that total without having Jay Cutler and Matt Forte playing down the stretch.  The Bears booted Mike Martz which should help keep Jay Cutler upright more often and they also added a legitimate receiving weapon in Brandon Marshall.  The Bears further strengthened the WR corps by drafting Alshon Jeffery in the draft.  If the defense can continue to play at a high level and the Bears are a little luckier with their health they should absolutely get more than 8.5 wins and head back to the playoffs. The Pick: Over -135

The “I love it, but I’m not in love with it” Division:

Cincinnati Bengals: Over 7.5 wins -130. Under 7.5 wins even

I think the Bengals are a team that is trending upwards.  Dalton and AJ Green are the real deal and the running game should improve given the improvements made to the offensive line.  I would look for the Bengals to move to a two-TE set much like the Patriots.  Gresham and 4th round pick Orsen Charles of Georgia will be tough covers on the inside and Green will threaten the opposition vertically.  A sophomore slump is possible and the Bengals are never what you expect them to be, but I think this is a team trending upwards.  Soft schedule in the first half of 2012 will allow the to gain some momentum.  The Pick: Over -130

Buffalo Bills: Over 7 wins -110. Under 7 wins -120

The Bills were big spenders in the offseason adding DE/OLBs Mario Williams and Mark Anderson.  The Bills’ front four will be as scary.  Williams and Anderson speed rushing on the outside, and Marcel Dareus blowing shit up in the middle will cause big time havoc.  The Bills also added maybe my favorite player in the draft when they selected CB Stephon Gilmore of South Carolina.  The Bills have weapons on offense and should have a vastly improved defense.  The Bills finished last season with 6 wins, if they can keep their heads above water in the first 1o weeks of the season, it should be cake walk city down the stretch.  Bills are going to be relevant for the first time since the early 1990s. The Pick: Over -110

Tennessee Titans: Over 7 wins -130. Under 7 wins even

Somehow the Titans got to 9 wins last season and were in contention for the playoffs until the last week of the season.  The offense has to improve this year.  I think Chris Johnson has a bounce back season.  Kenny Britt returns from injury and the he should see less double teams because the Titans added WR Kendall Wright in the draft.  The two biggest question marks surrounding the Titans are a) Who is going to be their QB and b) can they survive a murderer’s row of a schedule.  I think the QB thing will work itself out.  Either Jake Locker needs another year to develop and veteran Matt Hasselback leads the offense. Or Jake Locker wins the job outright and his big arm opens up the offense a little more.  Tough schedule, but I like what the Titans have cooking. The Pick: Over -130

The “60% of the time I’m right every time” Division:

Kansas City Chiefs: Over 8 wins -120. Under 8 wins -110

The Chiefs are only a year removed from the playoffs and managed 7 wins last season despite basically all of their best players being out with injuries.  Now those players return, but I still don’t think the Chiefs will have enough to get to 8 wins.  Tough schedule on paper and the rest of the division continues to improve.  Denver should be better with the addition of Manning, Carson Palmer showed signs of life at times last year in Oakland and a full offseason will only help the Raiders, and the Chargers can’t possibly be that bad again.  The division alone will make it tough to get to 8 wins, and their other games aren’t picnics either.  The Pick: Under -110

New York Jets: Over 8.5 wins -115. Under 8.5 wins -115

I think this is the year where everything finally implodes on Rex Ryan and the Jets.  An absolute head scratcher of a draft and offseason.  I like Tebow as much as the next guy, but that just isn’t going to work out.  I feel like the Jets made that trade thinking that they could take Tebow’s heart and leadership ability and put them into Mark Sanchez’s body.  It seems like a week doesn’t go by where a player on the Jets is saying Mark Sanchez isn’t a leader and doesn’t work hard enough.  If Sanchez had 1/10th the heart of Tebow he coulda made All-American.  The Jets are about to fail as miserably and spectacularly as any team in history and I literally can’t wait.  The Pick: Under 8.5 -115

So it was written, so let it be done. The Chief is wise.

 

Follow the Chief @WindyCitiSports

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